Synthetic evidence narrative Northstar Home · no customer data
The Store That May Not Have Caused It
Did a fictional store change total value, shift channel, or coincide with a wider trend?
Pre-trendPASSselected comparisonPooled estimate-12 indexscenarioLeave-one-out-5 to -17sensitivityPlacebo date0 to -3counter-caseStores supported2decisionStores unsettled3decision
Synthetic example. Deterministic fictional records; not transformed, aggregated or disguised customer data. Values demonstrate the method, not achieved results.
How to read this scene.Fictional customer locations define a catchment hypothesis, not geographic truth.
Trivial baseline
Naive before/after comparison: attribute the entire post-opening change to the store.
Sensitivity
Test pre-trends, placebo dates, alternate catchments and leave-one-store-out ranges; report the detectable effect bound.
Strongest counter-case
Stores may open where demand was already changing; placebo dates and alternate comparisons attack the result.
Verdict
DOWNGRADED: pooled estimate is unstable. SURVIVES: two store-specific signals; three remain unsettled.